Biden may lack Sanders Momentum

I am a Joe Biden type of guy. I like him, I like what he says, and I like some of what he stands for. But I don't think that his campaign's comeback in South Carolina will carry through Super Tuesday like many moderates hope it will. Why? Despite the endorsements, the friendly attitude, and moderates rallying around him, he doesn't have the groundswell of popular support Bernie has, and that he badly needs to make it through the primary.

First-off, a major point to look at is campaign finances. Biden has managed to raise a massive $76.2 million through his 'Biden for President' campaign and the 'Unite the Country' Super PAC fundraising. That's a lot, but Sanders has raised $134 million with only some very small PACs at his back, and key to it all is that 55.43% of that money comes from small individual donors. That is almost 74 million from small donors alone, nearly Joe Biden's total, who has only 36.24% of his campaign finances come from small individual donors, of which most are concentrated across the south.

Map of most individual donors by county, excluding Sanders (credit: NYTimes)

Sanders, too, has by far the greatest reach and quantity of small individual campaign donors. An astounding 1,395,000 individuals as of last December and growing rapidly (according to the New York Times), with Biden's number trailing at 451,000. These numbers don't look good for Biden, and individual donors is a good way of looking at who can turn out the vote best, as it gauges dedication to the candidate. Sanders is a master of turning out dedicated followers - this shows by the strength, size, and energy of the near 80-year old's rallies.

But what spells doom most for Biden is what may actually make him most appealing to the Republican electorate: his calmness and lack of anger. It stands in stark contrast to President Trump, who has caused a phenomena known as "Trump Fatigue" among many independents. A Sanders nominee may push those people towards Trump, choosing between two high-energy, reactionary candidates, the American people will refrain from choosing a socialist. It is Biden's general election advantage.

Despite that general advantage, it isn't boding well for him in the primaries. Energetic and reactionary campaigns get more media, more searched, and blow themselves (their size) up. Biden doesn't have that. Look no further than google trends. Sanders is more searched than Biden in not one, not ten, not twenty-five, but forty-eight of the fifty states. 48. All save Delaware and Mississippi.

Interest breakdown by State

Not only that, but search interest for Sanders has spiked recently, leading him to be searched nearly four times as often nationwide. 4x is a lot, and that is what a solid campaign, might I say a movement is built on, and it will be hard for Joe Biden to crack.

Search Interest over the past year

But while Sanders has all the signs of a solid campaign from a statistical perspective right now, it doesn't mean Biden can't win this tomorrow's Super Tuesday. Over the last 24 hours he actually just crossed Sanders for search interest, being catapulted after the South Carolina primaries - more search interest, more donations. Is this too little too late, or will this just be a permanent boost, and carry over until the primaries, or even the general finishes? Even in the worst case, it doesn't mean he's done - far from it. It just means it's going to be an uphill battle for Biden.