The Queen is Dead: How RBG's Death May Be Used By Republicans

Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Justice of the United States Supreme Court, has died very recently in a tragic bout with cancer. So recently, her entry on Wikipedia hasn't yet been updated with it.

The news was met with kind words from across the political spectrum: "She was an amazing woman whether you agree or not she was an amazing woman who led an amazing life." said President Donald Trump, His 2016 Rival, Hillary Clinton said "Justice Ginsburg paved the way for so many women, including me. There will never be another like her. Thank you RBG."

But apart from kind words, and a coming change to Wikipedia, there is almost no doubt that Republicans will use her death for political gain - there are two main ways I think this could happen. In the first case, a wait and bait strategy that involved waiting until the lame duck, and in the second case, push and trust in expectation of the post election court case.

Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg is dead at 87 with family

If the GOP chooses to wait and bait, Mitch McConnell makes the call to apparently follow the precedent he set in 2016, when he blocked President Obama's chosen replacement for Justice Scalia's seat for a full year in expectation of November 8th's results.

This would be the wait part. McConnell would feign respect for the precedent, and wait until after the election during the lame duck session to confirm the candidate of Trump's choice. The ploy would be intended to gin up support and urgency among Republicans who badly want to see the court shift in a more conservative direction.

The pro's of this move may be strong. It has the potential to push a lot of moderate conservatives who may have broken towards Biden to break for Trump, and to turn out a lot of otherwise unenthusiastic GOP voters both due to the Supreme Court possibility and the potential overturn of Roe.

The GOP Fought Hard for Kavanaugh During His Confirmation

Should the GOP move to Push and Trust, we'll see something much more interesting and conniving - and entirely likely. McConnell pushes to confirm a Trump choice as quickly as possible, even an apparently moderate one, in expectation of the lengthy court battle over mail-in ballots instigated by the Attorney-General which will likely follow the election. That's the push in push and trust.

Update: Ted Cruz has endorsed this strategy:

It could easily fall to the Supreme Court to decide the legitimacy of a Trump Administration case against Mail-In Ballots. A 5 person majority court? Maybe not a feasible win - one Justice and it's over, and that could happen quickly. 6-3? That's a whole other ballpark. They have to trust. Even without winning the case he could stall the decision long enough to prevent millions of ballots from being counted.

McConnell is a political opportunist - and will certainly confirm a Judge if it is in his power before January 20th, 2021 regardless of Ginsburg' wish not to be replaced until the next President is in power. But will he do it before or after November 3rd? That is the question.