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The Two Types of Republicans

The Democratic Party is not monolithic. Most people know this, and acknowledge there are two large "factions" in the party: the Progressives, and the Moderates. Political Pundits even speak in terms of the Moderate and Progressive lanes in their primaries. But we don't use the same language when talking about the Republican Party, unless talking about the near deceased "Country-Club Republicans", which naturally leads to the belief that they are a monolith in most people's, and even their own leader's, minds.


But there is an equal, if not greater, amount of complexity in the voter base of the Republican Party. Most often you find trends based on geography, so let's take a brief look at the Republican Party's performance over the last 5 elections since 2000, and identify geographical voter groups.

270toWin Identifies the States which voted the same way in Presidential Elections since 2000

Immediately we identify two prominent areas that have voted Republican consistently but are only joined by a thread, that thread being Nebraska. The Northwest, a band which somewhat crosses into the Midwest and stops short of Minnesota to the East, and Oregon to the West, and the South, stretching from Texas to West Virginia. At face value it can be easy to just say "well a lot of these states are primarily rural so therefore they vote Republican", but that dismisses a lot of complexity within these geographical groups, and isn't even an accurate picture.


If you dig a little deeper, you'll notice that the Southern Geographic Group (as I'll dub it) roughly corresponds with the Bible Belt, a deeply Christian and devout part of the Union. This is the first of the two groups of Republicans not too many people talk about. They are religious, very religious. The Northwestern Geographic Group (again my dubbing it), on the other hand, is more sparsely populated and has a more overwhelmingly northern European descendant white population.


So people may be driven more by religion in the South, and more by racial homogeneity in the North, but those alone don't cultivate conservatism. Religion drives Republicanism in the South because religion, particularly Christianity (which, according to Pew Research Center, makes up 77% of the population in Texas, and 78% in West Virginia), most often promotes socially conservative values which the Republican Party tends to adopt. Issues that may be most important to them are abortion, freedom of religion, and transgenderism.


Those in the Northwest Group tend to be significantly less religious, yet they are no less Republican. Christians make up only 67% of people in Idaho, and 71% in Wyoming. This amounts to flipping this region's religiosity across the national average as compared to the South. We also know that this group is made up significantly more of whites. A "Black Belt" like we see in the south does not exist there, and the Mexican border is over a thousand miles to the south.

Republican Senator Ted Cruz Appeals to Religious Voters by Speaking at a Church About His Sister's Overdose

Religion, and therein Social Conservatism, aren't as important to this group. They care about something else: The Status Quo. Whites, more than any other group, are significantly more likely to oppose Black Lives Matter (by up to 25% compared to other groups according to Pew) and oppose other groups seeking to change the status quo. Considering the heavily white nature of most of these states, and compounding that with their rural settings and you have a distinctly entrenched status quo attitude, which Republicans tend to want to uphold with shared opposition to BLM, changing laws to be more inclusive, and opposition to anything which may drastically alter the way of life for many Americans.


It's not that these groups don't share goals. Both want to see more fiscally conservative policy, greater emphasis on socially conservative platforms, and a maintenance of what they see as what makes America what it is. But what brings them to the party is different: Maintaining the Status Quo, versus pressing socially conservative, and religious, values. There may not be two lanes, but it's time both parties realise what matters to each of these groups of voters, and to approach them accordingly. Two voter sets, wedded by common goals.

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